The Monthly Weather Bulletin for the Arabian Peninsula January 2021: Cold weather concentrated in eastern and southeastern Arabia and a gradual escalation of weather conditions, especially with the second half of the month

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The most prominent expected weather phenomena

General situation

1. Cold weather in large parts of the eastern Arabian Peninsula, especially the areas of Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, eastern and central Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, parts of the Emirates and the Sultanate of Oman.

2. The rush of cold pools increased towards the region with the second half of the month.

3. A gradual increase in the chances of rain, especially with the second half of the month.

4. Rainy thunderstorms in parts of Iraq, Kuwait, northern and eastern Saudi Arabia, with an alert from the formation of torrents and water bodies.

5. Scattered thunderstorms in the regions of the Sultanate of Oman and the UAE, especially during the second half of January.

6. Alert of dusty downwind activity and dust in front of thunderstorms.

7. Alert of the formation of frost in parts of northern, central and eastern Saudi Arabia in some periods

Expected weather systems

Temperature deviation

Rain deflection

Detailed weather conditions for each week

First week (1-7) January 2021

The general situation during this week

• The tropical altitude controls large parts of the region without the control of any major weather conditions.
• The extension of cold air masses from the north of the region with the end of the period working to lower temperatures.
• High relative humidity levels create fog with the hours of dawn and night in large parts of the region, including Saudi Arabia.
• Rainfall is less than normal levels in various regions.
• Scattered thunderstorms in parts of Saudi Arabia.

Second week (8-14) January 2021

The general situation during this week

• The extension of cold air basins from the north of the Arabian Peninsula, coinciding with the retreat of the tropical elevation in southern Arabia.
• Low temperatures in large parts of the Arabian Gulf, especially northern, central and eastern Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and later the Emirates and parts of the Sultanate of Oman.
• Thunderstorms in different parts of Iraq and the chances of rain improved with the end of the period, especially in western and northern Saudi Arabia.
• Dust and dusty surface wind activity that reduces horizontal visibility in front of rainy thunderstorms.
• The temperature rise in western Arabia, western suburbs and parts of central and northwestern Saudi Arabia, to become higher than normal rates.

Third week (15-21) January 2021

The general situation during this week

• The extension of some of the depressions towards the northwest of the region, passing through the Levant, with an extension of the Red Sea depression towards the region.
• High chances of thunderstorms in the region and alerts of torrents forming in some areas.
• Surface wind activity in large parts of the region.
• Cooler weather during the hours of the night, dawn and early morning, becoming less than normal in large parts of the region.

The fourth week and the end of the month (22-31) January 2021

The general situation during this week

• The extension of cold air basins from the north and northeast of the Arabian Peninsula, in conjunction with the eruption of wet currents towards parts of the Arabian Peninsula.

• Rainy thunderstorms in separate parts of the Arabian Gulf, especially Iraq.

• The continuing low temperature, especially in eastern Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the Emirates, Oman, Iraq and Kuwait.

Climate situation (for professionals and interested parties)

Most global climate monitoring centers monitor the occurrence of what is called Sudden stratospheric warming, which is occurring at an altitude of approximately 30 km above the earth's surface, specifically above the Arctic Circle. This phenomenon, which recurs every several years and occurs in winters in the northern hemisphere of the globe, has a great impact on changing the weather patterns prevailing in the rest of the winter in the northern hemisphere because of its impact on the so-called polar vortex (Polar Vortex) And from which the winter depressions branch out, with both rainy and snowy parts, on the continents of the North of the Earth. This polar vortex is coherent in its natural position over the North Pole and has branches in several regions and is responsible, after the will of God, for the development of deep atmospheric depressions.

What happens as a result of the sudden stratospheric warming sometimes directly affects this polar vortex and may lead to its splitting into two, depending on where this warming occurred over the Arctic Circle. This event, which is believed to have already started at the time of writing (early January 2021), is believed to be one of the times this warming will be strong enough to split this polar vortex in two and in such a way that there will be a large accumulation of extreme polar cold in the northwest The continent of Asia, the pan-European continent, where a strong polar current is expected to flow to the west of the European continent before it merges with other intense polar currents in the east of the European continent and accumulates there for a period of time. It is important to mention that this happens because of the same phenomenon represented by sudden stratospheric warming, and despite its occurrence at high altitudes above the surface of the earth in the atmosphere, its impact reaches altitudes close to the surface of the earth, especially in those layers that control the weather and the shape of atmospheric patterns. , So that it results in the escape of currents and polar masses away from their original home, which is the North Pole, to be distributed randomly in the northern hemisphere continents, which also may last for a long time if there is a fission of the polar vortex.

After this fission, these blocks settle in regions and habitats after approximately several weeks have passed and shape the weather patterns for the remainder and until the end of the winter season, so that certain areas are exposed to storms and rainy depressions, and others are stable and warm. It is worth noting that the period during which the sudden warming occurs and the aforementioned aftershocks are proportional, this period becomes low-resolution global weather models due to the randomness of the distribution of polar air until it stabilizes in specific locations, with which the computer weather forecast models return to their usual accuracy, and the conversation here is more. Especially about the computer weather forecast models for the medium and long terms. The effects of this phenomenon vary from year to year according to other weather elements and indicators prevailing in the world at the time of this phenomenon, from the prevalence of the phenomenon of laninia, which is represented by the decrease in surface temperatures of the waters of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, the locations and intensity of the Madden-Julian waves (MJO), And many other elements enter either the temperatures of the water bodies in the northern hemisphere or the regions of depressions and the prevailing patterns at the time. Weather experts always try to predict how a sudden stratospheric warming will affect weather patterns after their occurrence, based on the above, but in many cases the effect is not what was expected, but it strikes some times.

Although it is climatic and statistically speaking, this phenomenon usually means the accumulation of polar coldness in the western European continent and sometimes eastern Canada all the way to the east of the United States of America, but this time it seems that the accumulation of polar cold will occur in the east of the European continent in the end. Atmospheric simulation computer modeling senses. All of the above and due to its direct impact on the weather patterns in the northern hemisphere, the Arab world is directly affected by the consequences of this phenomenon, as it is expected as a result that the distribution of air masses will be in the first days following the occurrence of this phenomenon (i.e. the first two weeks of January (January 2021) that the northwestern African regions (the Maghreb) will be affected by successive cold, rainy and snowy polar depressions, in addition to the western European continent, which is expected to witness many of its capitals such as Paris and London and even Madrid in the south. High snowfall, corresponding to the flow of very warm currents to the western parts of the Arab East, including the Levant, including Jordan and Egypt, in addition to Libya, and this is behind the expectations of the Arab Weather Center that dry, stable and perhaps warm weather will prevail in some The times are unusual in these countries in the first part of January of the year 2021, and at the same time, and as a consequence of the same situation, cold currents flow from the north of the Asian continent to the Arabian Gulf and central and southern Arabia. Causing a significant drop in temperatures below the usual levels in those areas, which may reach close to zero degrees Celsius in the high mountains of the Sultanate of Oman.

After that, and after the consequences of this fission of the polar vortex have stabilized, it is believed that the polar air with multiple sources will accumulate for a not simple period in the eastern European regions, but some computer modeling went to predict the centering of one of the polar vortex centers there, which will have a direct impact at the time on the Arab East. Where the air systems are expected to change and their reflection, perhaps literally, so that the regions of the Levant, the eastern Mediterranean, and the central, northern and western parts of the Arabian Peninsula will be exposed to rainy depressions and perhaps some of them are cool enough to cause snowfalls in some areas, while It is expected that the temperatures will rise and the weather is relatively stable in the Maghreb, and the temperatures will be relatively higher in southeastern Arabia. But due to the presence of other factors involved in controlling the formulation of weather patterns, it is also expected that the shape of the prevailing atmospheric pattern in the last period of the month will be complex, represented by a large accumulation of polar cold in the east of the European continent with a strong polar vortex there, but the atmospheric pattern may lack To the presence of strong heights sufficient to push part of these cold blocs in the eastern European continent to the Arab East, which leads us to expect the prevalence of a natural winter atmosphere in the fourth week of the month.

And at all times and as a summary, it has become certain that there will be an unusual warmth in large parts of the Arab East in the first part of the month and a corresponding return to the normal winter in the second part of the month, while it is believed that the matter will be the opposite in the Maghreb, where the polar cold The depressions in the first part of the month and offset by a more stable and warmer atmosphere in the second part of the month.

In view of some other factors in the atmosphere of those interested that contribute to the crystallization of the atmosphere, computer modeling projections indicate that the coefficients of fluctuations in January of 2021 will be as follows:

• North Atlantic Coefficient (NAO): The negative phase most days of the month, but indications are that it will approach the neutral phase at the end of the month.

The effect of the main parameter statistically at this stage alone (without taking the rest of the coefficients) with a correlation coefficient of more than 90% is: temperatures cooler than usual in the eastern and central European continent, and warmer than usual in the Arab East.

• Arctic Oscillation Coefficient (AO): The negative phase most days of the month, but indications are moving that it will approach the neutral phase at the end of the month.

The effect of the main parameter statistically at this stage alone (without taking the rest of the coefficients) with a correlation coefficient of more than 90% is: temperatures cooler than usual in the eastern and central European continent, and warmer than usual in the Arab East.

• Northern Atlantic water surface temperature coefficient (AMO): significantly positive.

The effect of the main parameter statistically at this stage alone (without taking the rest of the coefficients) with a correlation coefficient of more than 90% is: Temperatures warmer than usual in the Levant.

• The laninia phenomenon: the negative phase of the weak and a decrease in the strength of the laninia phenomenon towards the weak phase.

The effect of the main parameter statistically at this stage alone (without taking the rest of the coefficients) with a correlation factor of more than 90% is: There is no effect within the specified correlation factor.

• Pacific Northern Water Surface Temperature Oscillation Coefficient (PDO): negative phase.

The effect of the main parameter statistically at this stage alone (without taking the rest of the coefficients) with a correlation coefficient of more than 90% is: Temperatures cooler than usual in the Levant.

• Indian Ocean Oscillation Index (IOD): neutral phase.

The effect of the main parameter statistically at this stage alone (without taking the rest of the coefficients) with a correlation coefficient greater than 90% is: None.

• Zones wind oscillation factor (QBO): positive / westerly phase.

The effect of the main parameter statistically at this stage alone (without taking the rest of the coefficients) with a correlation coefficient of more than 90% is: Temperatures slightly cooler than usual in the Levant.

God knows