The polar vortex is constantly evolving.. What does this have to do with the approaching winter weather in the northern hemisphere?

Arab Weather - The latest outputs of numerical models and computer simulations in "Arab Weather" indicate a continuous development in the polar vortex in the stratosphere above the North Pole, with the continued increase in night hours over the polar regions and a decrease in temperatures due to the decrease in solar radiation falling on the northern polar regions.

First, how does the polar vortex begin to form as the fall season approaches, astronomically?

As autumn approaches, the large temperature difference between the polar and subtropical regions usually creates a low-pressure (cyclonic) circulation across the Northern Hemisphere that extends from the surface layers to the upper atmosphere. This is known as the polar vortex, and the image below shows a 3D image of the polar vortex. This map has been developed to be displayed vertically to illustrate the polar vortex's connection between the surface layers and the upper atmosphere.

What does polar vortex weather look like?

Weather forecasters at "Arab Weather" said that the upper part (stratosphere) of the polar vortex is considered more circular and consistent, unlike the lower layers of the atmosphere, which are considered more volatile due to the effect of the terrain, which limits the rotation of the polar vortex in the lower and surface layers of the atmosphere.

What do the weather forecasts say and what is the impact of the development of the polar vortex on the weather in the coming period?

The latest weather forecasts already indicate the beginning of a cooling over the Arctic in the stratosphere, where the cooling usually begins in August and increases in strength during September and October, until it reaches its coldest periods in November and December.

Weather forecasters at Arab Weather said that long-term forecasts until late September have already begun to indicate that the polar vortex has become more developed, and this has begun to appear clearly along the cold and polar basins to the regions of central and southern Europe, forming cold and deep depressions there, and snow falling over the high elevations in Europe and the Alps.

While this change has begun to appear clearly due to the extension of moderate and gentle air masses towards the Arab countries and the current drop in temperatures accompanied by some scattered rains, and with the continued growth of the polar vortex and the increase in polar storms in the northern hemisphere, it is expected that the chances of colder upper basins reaching the middle and lower latitudes will increase during the coming weeks and months, thus increasing the coldness of the atmosphere and the beginning of the formation of cases of atmospheric instability and later the formation of air depressions near the Arab regions, God willing, but it is not possible to be certain from now on the nature of the expected weather systems and their depth due to the long time period and the low accuracy of numerical models in predicting the weather conditions during distant periods.