Under surveillance: Numerical models indicate the possibility of a tropical system forming in the Arabian Sea early next October.. What are the chances of this happening?

Arab Weather - Some weather maps resulting from what is called computer simulation in their update for today 9/17/2024 indicate the possibility of the formation of a tropical weather system north of the Arabian Sea at the beginning of next October, with the approach of the date of the second seasonal disturbance period at the beginning of October of each year, which is known as the season that follows the activity of the monsoon winds in the Arabian Sea.

Despite these indications, which have been repeated in several updates of the numerical model, the relatively long time period and the complexity of such weather systems make it too early to be certain that this tropical system has formed.

The scientific reasons behind the constant volatility and difficulty of predicting tropical systems

• These models, which are run on supercomputers, learn the initial state of the atmosphere from weather observations, and therefore suffer from poor data and a lack of high-quality weather and marine observations in the oceans and seas, including the Arabian Sea.
• Tropical conditions are a very complex weather system and many weather factors are involved in determining whether or not they form.
• The instability of the distribution of weather systems in the region and the locations and positioning of highs in the upper atmosphere, in addition to the behaviour of jet winds in the upper atmosphere.

The specialists at the Arab Weather Regional Center periodically review the results and analyses of weather readings and computer simulation models and will issue updates if necessary in the coming days, God willing.

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