What is the `eyewall replacement cycle` phenomenon that Hurricane Milton might cause?

2024-10-09 2024-10-09T11:56:56Z

Arab Weather - When hurricanes move through open water, you may hear meteorologists refer to the "eyewall replacement cycle." This cycle is a common phenomenon associated with sudden changes in storm intensity, as it plays a major role in determining the strength and speed of the hurricane.

Rapid condensation concept

When referring to a hurricane's "rapid intensification," it means that the storm is gaining strength very quickly, resulting in increased wind and rainfall intensity. Eyewall replacement cycles are part of this context, as they can occur as storms move through a complex vortex of atmospheric activity.

Stages of the eye wall replacement cycle

As hurricanes strengthen, the eyewalls begin to become tighter and denser until they reach maximum available energy. At this point, a new eyewall may begin to form on the outside of the previous inner eyewall. This process cuts off fuel from the inner eyewall, eventually causing it to disappear. The result is a new eyewall that is larger in size but temporarily weaker in intensity, causing the storm's peak winds to decrease.

Eventually, the new eyewall can come back into action and become tighter and stronger. The storm regains strength, sometimes even stronger than it was before the eyewall replacement cycle occurred. This process reflects the complex dynamic changes that occur within hurricanes.

Hurricane Milton: 'Worst storm in 100 years' closes in on Florida

Joe Biden, who has canceled his trip to Germany to oversee the response to the hurricane, urged those in the storm's path to evacuate as a matter of “life and death”

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— Telegraph US (@TelegraphUS) October 9, 2024

Eyelid replacement cycle duration

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an eyewall replacement cycle can take anywhere from 12 to 18 hours to complete or as long as 2 to 3 days. These cycles occur multiple times during the path of a tropical cyclone, complicating forecasts of its intensity.

The effect of the cycle on hurricanes

Sometimes, an eyewall replacement cycle can occur at a favorable time. For example, Typhoon Mawar, which struck in late May, underwent an eyewall replacement cycle before it reached Guam. This cycle weakened some of the storm's strength just hours before it made landfall, helping to minimize potential damage.