Why are California fires getting worse and more intense year after year?

2025-01-11 2025-01-11T12:44:25Z

Arab Weather - Forest fires in the US state of California cause huge human and material losses every year. The state has recently witnessed devastating fires that have claimed the lives of at least five people until Thursday morning, prompting authorities to take decisions to evacuate many areas.

The fires spread due to the winds over vast areas, destroying more than a million buildings and cutting off electricity to large areas of the state, in a scene that has become familiar and repeated year after year, but which increases in ferocity and intensity with time.

Causes of fires

The causes of forest fires vary between natural and human. Naturally, lightning may strike dry trees or the ground, and the friction of tree branches or rocks may generate sparks that lead to a fire. Humanly, negligence is one of the most prominent causes, whether through industrial accidents or power line failures. However, the main factor in the spread of fires is the nature of the winds in the area and the dryness of the plants, as dry leaves and flammable trees become like fuel that fuels these disasters.

New study: Fires are getting worse

In November 2023, a research team led by scientists from the US-based Argonne National Laboratory concluded that the frequency, intensity and duration of wildfires will increase over time. The study, published in the journal Earth's Future, used satellite data collected between 1984 and 2019 to study 13,000 past wildfires in North America, particularly the United States. Using fire risk indicators and future climate projections, the study found that the risk of severe wildfires is expected to increase by an average of 10 additional days per year. In some areas, such as the southern Great Plains in the US, the average number of wildfire days could increase to more than 40 per year, mostly during the spring and summer.

In addition, the study revealed that some fires may extend into the winter months, which was considered exceptional in the past, due to the unprecedented low rainfall rates, which increases the drying of plants and makes them more susceptible to ignition and fires. Climate change does not only affect through the lack of rainfall, but also the frequent heat waves lead to drying plants even more, making them more susceptible to ignition, which in turn prolongs the duration of fires and increases their severity and spread.

The impact of climate change on fires

More recently, there has been an additional problem with the nature of the fire season itself. In the past, fires would start in one area and then gradually spread to others, allowing authorities to prepare and respond to the situation. But with climate change, fires can occur more frequently in different areas at the same time, putting enormous pressure on countries’ resources and preventing them from responding effectively during the fire season. This has been confirmed by multiple studies, including a 2020 review of 57 previous studies by an international team, which all showed that climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of “fire weather,” which refers to the conditions that are favorable for wildfires, such as high temperatures, low humidity, low rainfall, and strong winds. The review noted that fire weather seasons have extended across about 25% of the world’s vegetation cover, increasing the average length of fire seasons by 20%.

Drought is a major factor in the severity of wildfires. When droughts worsen, plants store less water and release less water vapor into the atmosphere, making them more susceptible to ignition. This also causes more dry leaves to fall and trees to die quickly, creating an ideal environment for fires to spread. For example, a study published in the journal Nature showed that Amazon rainforest fires are not a purely natural event, but rather the result of a combination of severe drought and human activities that negatively impact the forest ecosystem.

The California Fire Department has warned of strong winds returning Monday and Tuesday. #LosAngelesFires #California pic.twitter.com/fVdhrdxCzM

— World_Weather (@Arab_Storms) January 11, 2025

California: Epicenter of Growing Fires

Looking at California’s fires, it’s clear that the size and intensity of these fires have been on the rise since the 1980s. Of the 20 largest fires in the state’s history, more than 15 have occurred since 2000. The area burned in California has increased fivefold since the 1970s, while the state has seen a significant increase in average temperatures over the same period. These numbers underscore that the situation is getting worse as the climate crisis worsens.

Scientists predict that as the climate crisis continues to escalate, fires will become more intense and longer, and may shift their seasons to deep into winter. Although scientists have recognized these trends for decades, political response has been slow, making containment of the crisis more difficult over time.