Will climate change change the European tourist map in the coming years? Possible shocking scenarios

Weather of Arabia - Sinan Khalaf - The tourism movement in the European continent is directly linked to climate changes, and the impact of this was evident during the recent heat wave that changed the map of tourism in the countries of the continent, where tourist reservations decreased in the southern coasts and increased in the northern coastal regions unusually .

A new study conducted by the General Research Center in the European Continent (JRC) indicated that the number of tourists in the coastal countries in the south of the continent will witness a continuous decline in light of the continuation of climate changes and high temperatures in the summer seasons, and the study evaluates the “expected regional impact of climate change on the map of European tourism.” At four different levels of temperature, the temperature rises (1.5°C - 2°C -3°C - 4°C).

The following map shows the impact of current climatic conditions on tourism and simulates future effects until the year 2100, based on 10 climate models, and adopts four levels of warming (1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C).

The first and second scenario | Increased temperature by 1.5 - 2 ° C

In a climate increasing of 1.5°C, the majority (80%) of European regions are expected to be affected by climate change relatively little, as the influx of visiting tourists to those regions will fluctuate between -1% and +1%. The results show a relative similarity in the case of a 2 °C temperature increase.

The second scenario | Increase the temperature by 3 - 4 degrees Celsius

And if temperatures rise to levels ranging between 3-4 degrees Celsius , the impact will be evident on the European tourism map, with a decrease in the number of tourists by 9.12% for the Ionian Islands in Greece, for example, and an increase of 15.93% for West Wales in the United Kingdom.

The study concluded that Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal will not be a target for tourists in light of the high temperature, and tourists will start fleeing towards more moderate regions such as Germany, Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom in the summer.