Jordan | Does the significant rise in water temperature in the eastern Mediterranean herald the formation of Mediterranean storms affecting the region, including the Kingdom?

2024-07-28 2024-07-28T19:36:44Z

Weather of Arabia - The waters of the eastern basin of the Mediterranean Sea, like other bodies of water, are currently witnessing a significant rise in temperatures, reaching from 28 to 30 degrees Celsius, and thus they may have exceeded their usual levels by approximately 2 to 4 degrees Celsius.

Weather forecasters at the Arab Weather Center are monitoring the consequences of what the weather systems will lead to during the coming months, especially as we are approaching the fall season, during which autumn weather systems are usually active, represented by cases of atmospheric instability, especially since the rise in the temperature of water bodies leads to an increase in operations. Evaporation, which increases the humidity levels in the atmosphere and enhances the feeding of instability that may form during the coming fall season with sufficient moisture to form strong cumulus clouds.

The specialists at “Arab Weather” conducted a quick comparison of the temperature of the waters of the eastern basin of the Mediterranean Sea during the current year and previous years, as the current data indicated that there is a clear difference in the rise in temperatures from previous years exceeding an average of one degree Celsius as compared to the last 5 years. .

Current anomaly chart from NOAA, which shows the temperature of water bodies, including the eastern basin of the Mediterranean Sea

Anomaly chart of previous years from NOAA showing the difference in water temperature in the eastern basin of the Mediterranean Sea

The rise in the temperature of the Mediterranean Sea may contribute to an increase in the momentum of weather conditions during the coming season

The meteorological specialists at the Arab Weather Center believe that the rise in water temperature in the eastern basin of the Mediterranean Sea may help increase the momentum of weather conditions during the upcoming winter season, since, as we mentioned previously, this helps to increase the evaporation process, which, thus, feeds the upper basins. The cold coming from Europe with great humidity is enough to form strong clouds and heavy rain.

Warm waters are a fertile environment for Mediterranean storms to form

Weather forecasters in "Arab Weather" said that warm water is considered a fertile environment for increasing the strength of weather conditions, as cold air, when it collides with warm sea water, leads to large thermal differences, and with the presence of large humidity due to the evaporation of sea water, this leads to its flow to all... The layers of the atmosphere from the surface to the high layers, and thus the atmospheric pressure continues to decrease and the pressure lines become more convergent, which allows the formation of moderate, low-pressure storms accompanied by strong winds and sometimes very heavy rain.

Weather forecasters at the Arab Weather Center believe, by referring to climate records for the eastern basin of the Mediterranean, that storms in the Mediterranean rarely develop into sub-tropical cyclones, especially to the east, due to the relative shallowness of sea water and the dry climate surrounding it. Subtropical Mediterranean cyclones form mostly over the western and central Mediterranean, and these storms can form throughout the year, but they peak in the fall, specifically in the months of October and November.