The sun reaches the maximum stage of the solar cycle.. Are there solar storms coming?

2024-10-16 2024-10-16T07:56:34Z

Arab Weather - In a conference call held on Tuesday with journalists, NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Solar Cycle Prediction Committee announced that the sun has reached the maximum stage of its solar cycle, a stage that is expected to continue for the next year.

Solar Cycle: Definition and Concept

The solar cycle is a natural process that the Sun goes through, during which it moves between periods of high and low magnetic activity. About every 11 years, the peak of the solar cycle occurs, when the Sun's magnetic poles flip. This reversal is comparable to the Earth's north and south poles switching, which happens about every decade. During this period, the Sun goes from a quiet state to a state of intense activity and solar storms.

Track the solar cycle and solar activity

NASA and NOAA track sunspots to determine how the solar cycle is progressing and to predict solar activity. Sunspots are areas on the sun’s surface that are cooler than the surrounding areas, and are caused by a concentration of magnetic field lines. These spots are the visible side of so-called active regions on the sun, which contain complex and intense magnetic fields. These active regions are the source of solar flares and coronal mass ejections.

The effect of solar activity on Earth and space

The number of sunspots increases during solar maximums, leading to an increase in solar activity overall, said Jamie Favors, space weather program manager at NASA Headquarters in Washington. This increase provides a unique opportunity to study the sun, our closest star, but it also affects Earth and the entire solar system.

Solar activity greatly affects conditions in the space around Earth, known as “space weather.” These phenomena can affect satellites, astronauts, communications and navigation systems such as radio and GPS, and power grids on Earth. As the Sun becomes more active, space weather events become more common, increasing the likelihood of phenomena such as aurora borealis and other impacts on satellites and terrestrial infrastructure.

Major Solar Events in May 2024

In May 2024, the Sun unleashed a series of large solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), sending clouds of charged particles and magnetic fields toward Earth. This activity resulted in the strongest geomagnetic storm Earth has seen in two decades, and possibly among the strongest aurora displays recorded in the past 500 years.

Future developments in the solar cycle

According to Mr. Talat, NOAA’s director of space weather operations, the announcement that the sun has reached a maximum phase in its solar cycle does not necessarily mean that this is the maximum of solar activity. The sun could remain in this phase for months or even years before the true peak of activity is determined.

Talat added that scientists will not be able to pinpoint the exact peak of solar activity until they consistently monitor the decline in activity after that peak. However, scientific data has indicated that the past two years have been part of this active phase of the solar cycle, based on the increasing number of sunspots. This phase is expected to continue for another year before the sun enters the decline phase, which leads to a minimum of solar activity.

Solar cycle tracking history

Since 1989, the Solar Cycle Prediction Committee, a group of international experts sponsored by NASA and NOAA, has been studying solar cycles and trying to predict their path. The history of these cycles dates back to the 17th century, when Galileo first observed sunspots.

Each solar cycle is different; some have long, intense peaks of activity, while other cycles have less pronounced peaks of activity and last longer.

“The sunspot activity in Solar Cycle 25 has been somewhat above expectations,” said Lisa Upton, co-chair of the Solar Cycle Prediction Committee and a lead researcher at the Southwest Research Institute in Texas. “However, while there have been some large solar storms, they are still within the range expected during the maximum phase of the solar cycle.”

The most powerful solar flare yet: X9.0

So far, the most powerful solar flare of this cycle was the X9.0 flare that occurred on October 3. It should be noted that the “X” designation indicates the most intense solar flares, while the number provides additional information about their strength.

NOAA Forecast: Additional Solar and Geomagnetic Storms

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expecting more solar and geomagnetic storms during the current phase of solar maximum activity. These storms will likely provide greater opportunities for viewing the aurora over the coming months. NOAA also warns of potential impacts to technology such as satellites and communications systems.

Although the declining phase of the solar cycle is typically less active, scientists still see major solar storms during this period. NASA and NOAA are preparing to continue studying and forecasting space weather during this phase.

In December 2024, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe will make its closest approach to the Sun ever, making it the closest any human-made object has ever come to the Sun. This will be one of three planned attempts by Parker Solar Probe at this close orbit, which will help scientists study space weather from its direct source.

NASA's Future Missions to Understand Space Weather

NASA plans to launch several missions over the next year to better understand space weather and its effects across the solar system. These missions are intended to support space weather research, which is critical to ensuring the safety of spacecraft and astronauts as part of the Artemis campaign.

The Importance of Space Weather for the Artemis Campaign

Surveying the space environment is essential to reducing astronauts' exposure to harmful space radiation, and space weather forecasts are an essential tool to support the safety of human missions to space.

NASA and Space Weather: An Advanced Research Arm

NASA plays a major role as the advanced research arm of the United States in the study of space weather. For those who want to follow the effects of space weather on Earth, they can visit NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, the U.S. government's official source for space weather monitoring and warnings.