Expectations of the continuation of the phenomenon (El Nino, which is closest to neutral) during the coming months

Arabia Weather - M. Nasser Haddad - Most monitoring centers and international agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ), indicate the possibility (with a rate of 66%) of the continuation of the weak El Niño phenomenon during the coming months, and it may continue as well during the fall of 2019.

According to the following map attached from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ), it indicates that the El Nino phenomenon will continue weakly during the coming months.

What is the effect of the El Nino phenomenon on the Arab East?

The global El Nino phenomenon is statistically linked to fertile seasons on the Arabian Peninsula, with a rate ranging between 60-75%, and indirectly to the Levant, where the rainy seasons are characterized by a good distribution of rain, in addition to the closeness of the amounts of rain to the annual rates.

The following attached map indicates a deviation of the rainfall amounts from their general rates during the last rainy season 2018-2019, as most regions of the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant achieved their general rates, and even exceeded them in many regions.

What is the El Niño phenomenon?

• The El Niño phenomenon is defined as a rise in surface temperatures (heating) of the water surface in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean by more than 0.5 degrees Celsius over a period of time exceeding 3 consecutive months.
• As for the La Nina phenomenon , it means the cooling of the water surface there, and it is usually associated with the intensification of the influence of the Siberian High on the Arabian Peninsula and the Levant during the winter season.
• As for the neutral or neutral situation, it means that the abnormality or deviation of the water temperature remains between -0.5 and +0.5 degrees Celsius from the general average.

What are the effects of the El Nino phenomenon on the atmosphere?

Given the vast size of the Pacific Ocean, which is the largest body of water on the planet, the water temperature in it, including the temperature of the equatorial region, plays a prominent role in controlling the atmosphere (directly and indirectly), especially in the northern half of the earth.

1. As it affects the movement of jet streams (which are very fast air currents in the upper climatic layer in the atmosphere) and leads to an increase in its movement and dynamism,

2. It also affects the Hadley cell (which is a circulating climatic cell that moves hot tropical air towards the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn to descend to the surface of the earth and return again to the equator), and this means the intensification of air elevations that arise at latitudes close to 30 degrees north, such as the Azorean High and orbital elevation.

3. The effect of the El Nino phenomenon extends towards the Indian Ocean, as it indirectly leads to a rise in the surface temperature of the water in the western part of the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea ( IOD + ), and the Arabian Peninsula usually benefits from an increase in tropical humidity towards it, and in the event of an upper air depression, Thunder clouds arise with good distribution and strength.

To what extent does El Nino affect the weather?

Arab weather indicates that the El Niño phenomenon is not the only cause of all weather phenomena in the world, but rather an atmospheric variable that contributes among dozens of other variables in the weather, perhaps the most important of which is the surface temperature of the waters of the northern half of the Atlantic Ocean ( AMO ) and the movement of occasional air currents in the stratosphere ( QBO ), and many other weather factors.

This means that the weather is the result of all weather factors and phenomena, and is not exclusive and the result of a single weather phenomenon.

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