Africa | Successive tropical waves bring rainfall amounts that deviate from their averages by more than 500% in the coming weeks

Arab Weather - Weather forecasters at the Arab Weather Regional Center said that the latest computer outputs received regarding the movement of the humid air mass indicate that the African continent will continue to be affected by the humid tropical mass (MJO), which will bring new tropical moisture waves gradually moving westward during the coming days and weeks. It will be accompanied, God willing, by an increase in the rate of rainfall in central and northern Africa, including the African Sahara, which is one of the driest regions in the world, in addition to the increase in rainfall in many Arab countries, including Sudan, which increases the suffering of the population in light of the increasing severity and danger of floods.

Wet tropical waves will cross Africa in the coming period and coincide with high convection energy

In detail, large areas of central and northern Africa, including the African Sahara, are affected by tropical moisture waves that will continue for at least the next two weeks, coinciding with the expansion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Huge amounts of tropical water vapor rush through various layers of the atmosphere, coinciding with the rise in the Earth's surface temperature, the activity of ascending air currents, and the availability of high convection energy, which produces thick convective clouds that extend to high levels in the atmosphere, accompanied by very heavy rainfall, which increases the difficult weather conditions witnessed by many countries in the African continent, and thus increases the risks of flooding, especially with the nature of the desert soil that does not easily absorb rainwater and has been saturated with water since the previous tropical wave.

Several Arab countries in Africa are affected by tropical waves

Several Arab countries in Africa are affected by these tropical waves and climatic weather conditions. These countries are Sudan, Somalia, and Djibouti, in addition to Libya and the African Sahara, which is one of the driest regions in the world. Weather disturbances are severe in Djibouti, Somalia, and Sudan, where heavy rains fall with strong thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds, leading to the formation of torrents and floods.

As for the Maghreb countries, specifically Algeria and Tunisia, tropical waves will reach them, coinciding with the passage of cold upper basins from North Africa, which will produce rain waves in those regions due to the emergence of severe weather disturbances, accompanied by hail and thunderstorms during the coming days, which will cause the formation of floods and a rise in water levels in several regions, God willing.

Africa to receive huge amounts of rain in the coming weeks

The African continent is receiving huge amounts of rain in the coming weeks, ranging between 300-500 mm, and exceeding 500 mm in some areas. These are amounts of rain that Arab capitals receive throughout the year. For example, the annual rainfall rate in the northwest of the capital, Amman, is about 500 mm.

The African Sahara, the driest region in the world, is also witnessing heavy rainfall, as weather disturbances are active daily, especially in the afternoon hours and gradually intensify in the evening. Thick thunderclouds form, and the rain is sometimes heavy, accompanied by hail and sudden strong winds. The African Sahara is expected to receive large amounts of rain in the coming period compared to the annual average rainfall in those areas.

What does climate change have to do with the unusual rains in Africa?

Meteorologists at the Arab Weather Center said that climate change significantly affects rainfall patterns in Africa, increasing the frequency and intensity of rain waves in certain areas. According to recent reports from the World Meteorological Organization, Africa is exposed to a variety of effects resulting from climate change, such as rising temperatures and increased fluctuations in weather patterns, which leads to changes in the distribution of rainfall.

In some areas, climate change has led to unusually high rainfall, causing severe flooding that affects agriculture and infrastructure and exacerbates humanitarian challenges. For example, in West Africa, some areas have experienced increased rainfall during the rainy season, which is consistent with increased monsoon activity.

For specialists and amateurs.. A scientific and climatic analysis of the weather system witnessed by Africa

Weather forecasters at the Arab Weather Center analyzed the weather system affecting Africa. Scientifically, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), known as the area where the northeastern trade winds meet the southeastern trade winds, has expanded geographically over a larger area than usual, coinciding with the influence of the humid tropical mass, also known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).

It is a pattern of atmospheric oscillations that greatly influences the distribution and intensity of rainfall in tropical regions. This phenomenon is a system that moves slowly from west to east across the Indian Ocean and the tropical Pacific Ocean, where an active phase of convection (rain and storms) begins in the Indian Ocean and moves towards the Pacific Ocean.

With these weather conditions, the terrain and surface temperature of the Earth help lift moist air into the upper layers of the atmosphere, leading to cloud formation and precipitation. Thermal lift occurs when the Earth's surface is heated during the day, causing warm air to rise where it cools and condenses, forming clouds. Topographic lift results from the influence of mountainous terrain that forces air to rise into the upper layers of the atmosphere.

God knows best.