In light of climate change...the Arctic is a cake and Russia is dividing its slices

2024-02-24 2024-02-24T15:57:45Z

Weather of Arabia - Russia views the Arctic as a valuable heritage, taking it as a platform to achieve its interests, and teaching it as a source of natural wealth and tremendous economic opportunities. Indeed, it is the main recipient of the region, dividing the land according to the surrounding coastlines, reflecting its strategy to make the most of Arctic resources.

However, this idea is complicated by the imperfect nature of the Arctic, where many countries compete for resources and long border treaties and international waters conflict. In addition, UNCLOS has not clearly stated who has sovereign rights over this area and its resources.

As climate change melts ice, Russia - the world's largest country stretching across 11 time zones - has realized that its longest border extending above the Arctic Circle is being exposed. This situation led to a reorganization of Russian military thinking and the adoption of a major expansionist strategy in the Arctic.

President Putin has built several military bases in the region, and has allocated billions of dollars to create a new shipping route that one day aspires to rival Egypt's Suez Canal. He also called for expanding Arctic exploration and exploitation of potential natural resources, including underwater mountain ranges believed to contain vast, untapped resources.

Since 2005, at least 50 Soviet-era military bases have reopened in Russia, including 13 air bases, 10 radar stations and 20 border posts.

In addition, Russia has modernized its Northern Fleet, modernizing a number of nuclear submarines capable of launching long-range nuclear weapons. New missiles that have hypersonic speeds have also been developed and are designed to evade American sensors and defenses.

Russia has the largest number of forces stationed in the Arctic region, and it also regularly carries out tactical exercises in this region. It also has the largest icebreaker fleet in the world, significantly outnumbering ships from other NATO countries. The number of Russian bases in the Arctic Circle is more than three times the number of NATO bases in this region.

It is estimated by some experts that Western countries will need at least ten years to strengthen their military presence in the region to confront Russian forces. This military superiority poses a major challenge to NATO, as Russia can severely disrupt the vital sea lines between North America and Europe.

Russia is investing in building floating nuclear power plants to provide electricity and heating in all regions, in addition to launching a satellite to monitor the movement of ship flows.

Russia has also expanded shipbuilding, equipping a new fleet of 40 Arctic ships, including oil tankers, rescue and support ships, in addition to 8 nuclear-powered icebreakers. This basically means their ability to penetrate thick polar ice and create paths that allow merchant ships to pass easily.

As part of these plans, China is building several Chinese piers in northern Russia in ports that do not handle large volumes of shipping, in addition to building new railway lines to serve these ports, and constructing a 500-kilometre line to connect Perm in the Orles Mountains to several northern port cities.

Despite the enormous costs of this project, they are considered small compared to the expected profits, as the project is expected to produce 25 million tons of oil by 2025 and 100 billion tons by 2030 once it is fully operational.

This massive project, characterized by its enormous cost, magnitude and future impact that will undoubtedly affect the future of Russia and the world, highlights Putin's ambitions to control the Arctic and puts Russia's territorial expansion even more in the spotlight. This raises the concerns of many countries, most notably the United States, which warned Russia early against progressing in these projects. The United States reminded Russia that the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage are used as international shipping lanes and are not subject to exclusive control from Moscow, although a large part of this route falls within Russia's exclusive economic zone in accordance with international laws.

Even before Russia's invasion of Ukraine changed the West's strategic calculus, Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 had increasingly alarmed its neighbors. This work has shown that when Russia believes it has a strong enough case, it will not hesitate to use military force to achieve its goals, in defiance of international norms.