The `El Nino` phenomenon devours sweets... an expected jump in the prices of sugar and other sweets

2024-01-06 2024-01-06T07:20:54Z

Arabia Weather - Who among us does not enjoy the taste of chocolate? It is not just a delicious dessert, it is considered a source of happiness and energy, and has many health benefits. However, chocolate extracted from cocoa beans today pays part of the heavy price due to climate change .

As a result of climate changes, such as high rates of global warming and changes in the rainfall regime, cocoa plants, which depend on certain conditions of heat, humidity and rain to grow and flourish, were affected. This effect reduced cocoa production and affected its quality in some areas.

Accordingly, climate change is expected to have more severe impacts on cocoa production, making chocolate more expensive and reducing its availability in the future, which will be reflected in record price levels.

The impact of climate change on the chocolate industry

According to some studies, it is expected that the climatic conditions suitable for cocoa cultivation will decrease significantly by the year 2050 , as a result of climate changes, rising temperatures, and increasing drought severity. This development poses a major threat to the future production of this crop. Thus, it threatens the cocoa-based chocolate industry.

In this context, Carlos Mera, head of agricultural commodities market research at Rabobank, located in the Netherlands, confirmed that:

“El Niño, which is considered a climate phenomenon, may have a significant impact on the confectionery industry, as it appears to consume or remove significant amounts of sugar around the world.”

Mira added, stressing:

“Sugar prices have likely already passed through to consumers, but we should expect a significant increase in chocolate prices at retail level, and El Niño is something to watch closely.”

Why cocoa specifically?

Answer: Cocoa cultivation is among the crops most affected by climate change at the levels of production and quality. This cultivation is affected by three basic climate factors, the effects of which are reflected in the productivity, quality and sustainability of cocoa, which in turn is reflected in the costs of the chocolate industry. These factors are:

temperature

Cocoa trees need average temperatures ranging between 24 and 30 degrees Celsius, as they cannot tolerate excessive heat or a sharp drop in it. They are affected by the El Nino phenomenon , which raises temperatures and causes drought and fires in some areas.

the soil

Cocoa trees prefer sandy loam soils with good drainage, high fertility and low acidity, and the trees are susceptible to soils that are saline, degraded, or contaminated with pesticides or heavy metals.

Rain

Cocoa trees need annual rainfall of between 1,000 and 2,000 mm, evenly distributed throughout the year, and drought, floods, or strong winds that cause the flowers and fruits to fall negatively affect the trees.

In this context, environmental expert Tahseen Shaala confirms that climate changes play a vital role in influencing the production of strategic crops such as cocoa, and points out that radical changes in climate can affect crop growth and production, and may even lead to the elimination of these crops in some countries. This requires redefining the agricultural map at the global level.

What is the El Nino phenomenon?

Answer: El Nino, which reappeared at the beginning of this year, is a natural weather pattern that occurs when surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean rise more than 0.5°C above the long-term average, and that increase can give way to increased storms and droughts.
El Nino 's effects usually peak during December, but it takes time for its effects to spread around the world.
This delayed effect is due to the belief that 2024 may be the first year in which humanity exceeds the critical global warming threshold, due to drought associated with the El Niño phenomenon in multiple regions of Southeast Asia, India, Australia and some regions of Africa.

This has supported higher prices for basic commodities such as sugar, coffee and cocoa this year, according to Rabobank forecasts in its 2024 annual report, and the Dutch bank expects global food inflation to decline sharply after years of rising.
While he warned of a potential negative impact on many crops next year due to the El Nino phenomenon , he pointed out the possibility of achieving benefits for some crops in regions such as the United States, southern Brazil and Argentina.