Will Egypt retreat from its first position in the world in olive production after losses exceeding 50% for this season?

Weather of Arabia - Last year (2020) Egypt occupied the first place in the production of table olives, skipping Spain, but this year the olive crop in Egypt joined the agricultural crops whose production decreased sharply, and their quality surprisingly declined, similar to the summer mango crop. The past, which disappointed both farmers and consumers.

With the end of the olive harvest season in November, the extent of the severe damage to the crop is revealed, but the largest proportion of the loss fell to farmers who suffered heavy losses.

The decline and weakness of production was also reflected in the prices of table olives (pickled) of various types, and olive oil in the market at rates exceeding 25%, amid expectations of an increase in them again, and warnings against expanding olive oil fraud to take advantage of its high prices.

olive cultivation in Egypt

Over the past four decades, olive cultivation has witnessed a great expansion and development, making Egypt at the top of the list of olive producing countries in the world, during the 2019-2020 season.

Until Egypt ranked first, surpassing Spain with a crop of 690,000 tons of olives, compared to 497 thousand tons in the 2018-2019 season, while Spain fell to second place with 500,000 tons, compared to 580,000 tons, a decrease of 16% from the previous season.

The data of the International Olive Council expected that Egypt’s olive production would continue to increase, reaching 800,000 tons during the 2020/2021 season, before the actual production suddenly decreased, according to observers.

The area planted with olives in Egypt jumped from 5,000 acres at the end of the 1970s to more than 100,000 acres at the end of the 1990s, and rose in 2000 to about 108,000 acres and exceeded more than 240,000 acres in 2019, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.

The reason for the collapse of the olive season

The losses of the olive crop for this season exceeded 50%, according to some estimates, and 25% at least. Ahmed Youssef, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Agriculture in Matrouh, said - in an intervention on Egyptian TV - that " climate changes have led to a decrease in the olive yield in the governorate by 25% compared to previous years."

This great loss was expected, but it could not be avoided, according to the head of the Farmers’ Syndicate, Hussein Abu Saddam; Because it is related to the climatic changes that occurred last March and April, as olives need lower temperatures during the flowering season and decade; But what happened is that the temperature was high, so production was weak.

In an unprecedented change in crops, Abu Saddam pointed out that many crops (not only olives and mangoes) have been severely damaged due to weather fluctuations and climate change during the past year and this year, which is a dangerous indicator of the future of agriculture in Egypt and its food basket.

The price of a liter of olive oil increased between 120 and 150 pounds per liter, compared to about 80 and 120 pounds per liter last year, and the price of table olives (pickled) in general increased by more than 25%, from popular to luxurious, with warnings of an increase in fraud, specifically in Olive oil because of its high price, and the ease of mixing it with any other oil while preserving its viscosity, color and taste to a close extent to the original oil, and it is not preferable to buy cheap oil because the possibility of cheating in it is greater.

Climate change and direct impact on olive yield

Global warming was the main element that the World Meteorological Organization noted, because of its direct impact on the rest of the climate elements and the weather phenomena accompanying it.

Ali Qutb, a professor of climate at Zagazig University and former deputy head of the Meteorological Authority, told Al Jazeera Net that since the industrial revolution in the middle of the 19th century until now, it has been observed that the average temperature has risen two degrees above normal rates, and this has affected all elements and weather phenomena from Rain, dust, storms and hurricanes, which in turn affected all economic activities.

Qutb warned of the climatic effects on agriculture in general , noting that high or low temperatures, an increase in wind speed during the transitional seasons, and the scarcity of rain in some areas and its abundance in others, all these elements do not serve agriculture, but rather harm it severely and affect the productivity and diversity of crops.

Climate fluctuations for the year 2021 caused significant losses to many crops, vegetables and fruits, and their impact appeared quickly in the markets with the increase in mango prices by more than 50%. The same applies to other crops and at a higher rate, top of which is the olive crop, which is one of the commodities The agricultural sector, which recently witnessed a boom in production and an increase in area, was the most profitable in the agricultural sector, and Egypt ranked first in its production last year 2020, surpassing Spain with a productivity of 690 thousand.

Climate fluctuations for the year 2021 caused significant losses to many crops, vegetables and fruits, and their impact appeared quickly in the markets with the increase in mango prices by more than 50%. The same applies to other crops and at a higher rate, top of which is the olive crop, which is one of the commodities The agricultural sector, which recently witnessed a boom in production and an increase in area, was the most profitable in the agricultural sector, and Egypt ranked first in its production last year 2020, surpassing Spain with a productivity of 690 thousand.

The need for a comprehensive climate feasibility study

Dr. Mohamed Ali Fahim, head of the Climate Change Center at the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, says that the climate in Egypt is changing faster than expected and that the prevalence of highly variable “local” climates is strange and unthinkable when farmers set up olive plantations.

He explained that the olive is the only tree that has complex, overlapping and intertwined growth cycles , which is a spring, summer and autumn growth cycle, an apparent winter dormancy, the fulfillment of coldness, the breaking of the dormancy phase, the beginning of a growing season, the emergence of vegetative and flowering buds, pollination, fertilization and knots. That it kills is climate, not nutrition or any other factor.

He added that the olive season is similar to the one that was in 2018 and caused great losses, as the hours of cold were not enough, followed by a hot spring with sudden waves in mid-March 2021, which hit the season of completion of flowering and the beginning of the decade, and thus the climate and its fluctuations became dominant in the production of the season, saying that what must That this happen this year and in a sufficient period to be expected of what will happen in the climate, known as the “global climatic feasibility”, which is concerned with studying the climatic history of the region and calculating the value of climatic indicators.

Egypt's participation in the Glasgow Climate Change Summit

Last week, Egypt launched the National Climate Change Strategy 2050, as part of its participation in the activities of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change (COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland.

During his speech at the summit a week ago, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi said that the preparation of this national strategy aims to modernize Egypt for the nationally determined contribution so that the policies, objectives and procedures are complementary to the state’s development efforts.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson issued a shocking warning during his speech at the World Climate Summit, in which he said, "Get ready for the separation of your loved ones," warning of the disappearance of 3 cities around the world, including Alexandria (the second largest Egyptian city), in the event that no measures are taken to prevent the disease. High temperatures on the Earth's surface.

Source: agencies