The Gaza war affects climate change and increases environmental damage

Weather of Arabia - The ongoing war between the occupation and the resistance in Palestine represents a major challenge, not only from a political and humanitarian perspective, but also with regard to its effects on environmental sustainability and the world’s transitions towards green energy.

In light of increasing awareness of the need to confront climate change, this war raises critical questions about how wars and geopolitical tensions affect efforts to preserve the environment and promote the use of renewable energy sources.

How do wars affect climate change and the environment?

In addition to human losses, wars drain enormous resources and often cause severe environmental damage.

The cost of environmental military operations includes the destruction of infrastructure and the resulting disruptions to green energy projects and policies. These aspects represent a part that cannot be ignored when studying the comprehensive impact of wars.

In this context, Andrea Zanon, CEO of the consulting firm specializing in clean technology, environment, social and governance (Empower Capital), indicated that wars may affect some of the ongoing negotiations in the climate sector globally. Focusing on domestic issues is a priority for governments during times of crisis, which means that some countries may cancel or postpone decarbonization targets under these circumstances.

The conflict is also expected to lead to a loss of some positive momentum, and climate-related investment in vulnerable countries in the MENA region may be delayed. However, Zanon argues that it is not possible to stop or significantly slow down the overall shift towards “green growth”.

On the other hand, Zanon considers, based on experience from the Russian war in Ukraine, that wars may accelerate the transition towards zero emissions, with the aim of making countries more energy secure and less dependent on unstable actors for energy supplies. This is precisely what Europe, which relied heavily on Russia to provide energy, did.

The biggest threat to the “green transition” is oil price volatility

Although the countries currently involved in the war are not oil producers, which means that the war is currently unlikely to affect oil supplies, if the scope of the conflict expands into a regional crisis, we may see additional fluctuations in oil prices and increased pressure toward... $100 per barrel or even higher, according to Zanon.

If this increase occurs, higher prices will encourage more oil and gas exploration and extraction around the world, as fossil fuel companies will seek to capitalize on these opportunities.

Zanon points out that this could lead to more affordable oil supplies again, increasing demand for oil and potentially slowing the transition toward zero emissions.

The expert in the field of clean energy considers that the biggest challenge to achieving “green growth” is the volatility of oil prices, as this volatility leads to a decline in investments in renewable energy projects by institutional environmental and social investors.

Repercussions of the war on renewable energy supply chains

The war in Palestine, similar to the war in Ukraine, is likely to accelerate rather than slow the global shift toward clean technologies, such as solar energy, green hydrogen, and electric vehicles. Despite this potential acceleration, a challenge remains in achieving the Paris Climate Agreements and limiting temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

To achieve these ambitious goals, we must pump $4 trillion in clean energy investment by 2030, instead of the current $2 trillion annually. Although tensions and conflicts continue, some believe that this ongoing conflict may not have a significant impact on renewable energy technology supply chains.

Increased climate variability, heat wave variations and heavy rainfall are expected to increase the intensity and frequency of natural hazards, such as floods, wildfires, sea level rise and drought, causing disruption to oil and gas supplies.

Verrisk Maplecroft indicates that 30% of global oil and gas reserves are considered at high risk due to climate disruption, which reinforces the growing shift towards establishing renewable and local energy systems.

Source: Arabic